Capital Markets Day 2026
Anders Opedal, President and CEO of Equinor ASA:
“Demand continues to grow and Equinor is uniquely positioned to provide reliable energy. We will deliver more energy, growing cash flow and superior returns towards 2030.”
Why invest? Our equity story
More energy, growing cash flow and superior returns
Our strategy is to maximise value on the Norwegian continental shelf, deliver focused growth in international oil and gas, build a competitive integrated power business and create more value uplift through trading and market optimisation.
Returns is the guiding principle for the way we do business. We have delivered industry leading returns in the past and want to do so in the future. We expect to deliver ROACE above 15%, every year towards 2030.
Equinor aims to double share buy-back for 2026 to USD 3 billion and introduces a more predictable framework for share buy-backs from 2027. We aim to continue growing the cash dividend per share by more than 5% annually.
More energy
We will allocate 90% of our capex to oil and gas and aim to grow the oil and gas production by 150 mboe/d by 2030. By changing the way we work on the Norwegian continental shelf, we increase the production outlook by 100 mboe/d for 2030 and 2035. Our international oil and gas business is set to deliver 30% production growth in the same period, mainly from sanctioned projects in attractive areas.
The remaining 10% of our capex will be allocated to build an integrated power business. Our approach will be disciplined and value driven, and we will need to see 10% equity returns on project level and aim to achieve portfolio uplift with an integrated power approach.
Growing cash flow
We expect a 30% growth in cash flow from operations (CFFO) from 2025 to 2030 based on current price estimates.
Following the improvements across the business and the high-graded investment program, we expect to deliver more than 40 billion dollars in free cash flow from 2026 to 2030.
Superior returns
Our dividend policy remains unchanged. We aim to grow the quarterly dividend per share by more than 5% annually, with any adjustment made annually in the fourth quarter.
- Doubling the 2026 share buy-back from USD 1.5 billion to USD 3 billion
- Increased share buy-back to be distributed in third and fourth tranche for 2026
- Ordinary quarterly cash dividend remains at 39 cents per share
Share buy-back is the flexible component.
New guidance with annual share buy-back of USD 2-4 billion form 2027 is being introduced to provide investors with increased visibility and predictability.
How our business areas deliver on the equity story
Developing the Norwegian continental shelf to maximise value
We have redefined our NCS operating model and accessed and matured more volumes. This leads to 50% faster tieback development and increased production outlook, with 25-50% lower cost.
Growing a focused international oil & gas business
We expect 30% production growth in 2030, leading to a total production of 950 mboe/d. Gash flow from operations is expected to grow by 80% from 2025 to USD 9 bn in 2030. The international oil and gas segment will contribute with USD 20 bn in free cash flow from 2026 to 2030.
Building an integrated power business
Our approach is a value focused build-out in markets where we are already present. Going forward we are expecting a self-funded power business, with the offshore wind business itself turning cash flow positive already in 2027From 2027 to 2030 we expect a USD 3 bn cash flow from operations covering a USD 3 bn in capex (net of ITC). Our investments need to prove more than 10% stand-alone equity nominal return, with additional uplift from trading.
Value uplift from trading
We will do a step-up in trading to increase quarterly adjusted operating income by 25% from USD 400 million by 2030. We see that asset backed trading provides robust results with large upside.
Growing production while reducing emissions
Equinor is an industry leading operator with low CO2 and methane intensity from operations.
While oil and gas production will increase, Equinor maintains the ambition to reduce operated emissions by 50% towards 2030. Electrification on the Norwegian continental shelf and improved energy efficiency across the portfolio are key enablers.
Equinor expects to reduce its net carbon intensity, including scope 1, 2, and 3, in the range of 15-30% by 2035.
Our Energy Transition Plan provides information about our strategy, actions and how we manage climate-related risks, reflecting business opportunities in the transition and our pathway towards net zero by 2050.