Capital markets update 2025
Anders Opedal, President and CEO of Equinor ASA:
“We demonstrate a consistent strategic direction, adapting to changing markets, and take clear actions to further increase value creation for shareholders.”
Why invest? Our equity story
Firm strategic direction - stronger free cash flow and growth
Our investor proposition is a consistent execution of a growth strategy, positioned for high return and strong free cash flow, enabling us to deliver competitive capital distribution as we grow long-term shareholder value.
We have a clear strategy for transition and growth, focusing on optimising oil and gas, high value growth in renewables and developing low carbon solutions, such as carbon transport and storage.
Equinor is well positioned for value creation against a market backdrop of rapid change, market uncertainty and an uneven energy transition.
At CMU in February 2025, Equinor demonstrated ability to deliver strong growth in oil and gas production, with an expected growth above 10% from 2024-2027. Continued capital discipline and cost focus will support an expected strong free cash flow, enabling a competitive capital distribution. Toward 2030 we expect return on capital employed on average above 15% and a cash flow from operations after tax of around USD 20 billion on average. See CMU slide deck for price assumptions.
Equinor has strengthened its resilience and can be cash flow neutral after all investments at an oil price around 50 dollars per barrel, and has a robust capital structure with a single A credit rating.
We are making solid progress on our 2030 ambitions, with high value and low carbon at the centre of our strategy. We have strong earnings and capital discipline, we are delivering competitive capital distribution while growing production and sanctioning new projects and progressing renewables and low carbon solutions. We will continue to transition and grow towards 2035.
See our latest capital markets update for details:
Building resilient businesses for the future
Equinor has a clear ambition to be a leading company in the energy transition, adapting the execution of the strategy to the market situation and commercial opportunities, focusing on value creation.
The Norwegian continental shelf is our home turf, where we will continue to develop new production hubs and extend existing hubs. We continue to add new volumes offsetting decline, through new projects, improved oil recovery and exploration, supporting strong production growth medium term. Towards 2030 we expect production to remain high at around 1,250 thousand boe per day, with an upstream CO2 intensity around 5 CO2kg/boe. Equinor is the largest piped gas exporter to Europe and is deepening in the US gas market.
The international upstream business has seen change over the past years with focusing and deepening in core areas, to high-grade and further increase the profitability in the portfolio. New projects on stream, particularly in Brazil, is expected to contribute to a production growth and production above 950 thousand boe per day in 2030, with a significant growth in free cash flow and with an upstream CO2 intensity below 7 CO2kg/boe.
Equinor has seen a significant growth in renewable power production, capturing market opportunities for growth onshore as offshore wind projects has seen challenging economics. Going forward Equinor will continue to adjust pace of growth to market opportunities, focusing on value and ensuring competitive equity returns. Towards 2030 Equinor expects to have 10-12 gigawatt of power generation installed.
Low carbon solutions have seen uneven progress for market development. Carbon transport and storage, a market where Equinor is a leading company, has developed with several projects in execution and both regulatory and market conditions maturing. Equinor continues to mature projects for CO2 transport and storage, and expect an equity capacity installed of 30-50 million tonnes per year by 2035.
Across all segments and projects Equinor will focus on value creation, putting value over volume. For renewables and low carbon projects Equinor expects a full cycle nominal equity return above 10%.
Roadmap to Net Zero
Equinor is dedicated to long-term value creation in support of the goals of the Paris Agreement. By reducing the net carbon intensity of the energy products produced by 15-20 percent by 2030 and 30-40 percent by 2035, Equinor tracks the progress towards the ambition of being net zero by 2050.
The Energy Transition Plan, originally published in 2022 and now updated in 2025, gives information about our strategy, our actions, and how we manage climate-related risk to ensure a value driven and balanced approach. It reflects the long-term business opportunities in the transition and outlines our pathway to net zero in 2050 as well as our transition ambitions in the short, medium and long-term.
Our Energy Transition Plan