Long-term forecasts of the development in global energy markets are normally very difficult. As this year’s Energy Perspectives report is published, the task is even more complex, as global markets and geopolitics are undergoing massive shifts with unpredictable consequences in both the shorter and longer term. Political priorities affecting global energy markets are shifting further away from decarbonisation towards energy affordability and security of energy supply. On top of this, it is nearly impossible to gauge the short-term impact of trade conflicts and new rules in the geopolitics game.
“The geopolitical landscape and trade conflicts clearly illustrate that the global cooperation needed for a Paris-aligned energy transition is not present”, says SVP and Chief economist Eirik Wærness.
A global energy transition roughly in line with the ambitions of the Paris Agreement has become severely delayed and more fragmented, and global greenhouse emissions continued to increase last year. Despite numerous positive developments, the macroeconomic, political and geopolitical realities are characterised by lack of trust, cooperation and burden-sharing, that are slowing down the pace of change foreseen in the Paris Agreement. A reversal of this development will take time, and its success is by no means guaranteed. With short-termism and local and regional priorities dominating policy making, the necessary global changes in the direction of truly sustainable development, balancing the different concerns in the energy trilemma, will be further delayed.
Energy Perspectives 2025 presents four scenarios for the future world economy, international energy markets and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The scenarios are built to show how divergent drivers in the energy trilemma (energy security, affordability and decarbonisation) affect long-term developments. The scenarios are not predictions, but possible contrasting pathways, providing a platform for debate, strategic planning and decision making.
“The insights and analysis provided by Energy Perspectives help us navigate short-term uncertainties without losing sight of long-term trends”, says President and CEO Anders Opedal.
The three forecast scenarios, Walls, Silos and Plazas, aim to highlight the large gap between the relatively slow, incremental changes that characterise the energy transition today, and the radical and rapid changes needed to move the world onto a path aligned with the 1.5°C ambition of the Paris Agreement as in the normative Bridges backcast scenario.
