Previous years’ Energy Perspectives reports
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Energy Perspectives archiveEnergy Perspectives is an independent energy scenario analysis prepared annually by Equinor analysts in macroeconomics, energy markets and geopolitics.
The analysis describes development paths up to 2050 for the world economy, energy markets and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, and includes a 1.5 degree scenario.
The scenarios are not detailed predictions but possible contrasting pathways providing a platform for debate and decision-making.
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June 13: Video presentation by Eirik Wærness, chief economist. Video production: Holi AS, Norway, for Equinor
To deliver on global climate targets, the world needs to see an entirely different speed in the energy transition than today
Our two scenarios Walls and Bridges illustrate the difference between a change in pace and a revolution in the energy transition.
The key to the energy transition and higher energy efficiency lies in electrification, while expanding solar & wind on a large scale
June 8, 2023: Despite policy and technological progress, the 1.5-degree ambition is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve.
The world is far from being on track to meet targets and ambition set out in the Paris Climate Agreement. Increased levels of geopolitical conflict have unfortunately made the energy transition more fragmented, and positive developments are in many cases offset by negative ones.
The scenarios highlight the challenges that must be overcome to move from the slow, incremental changes that characterise the energy transition today (Walls), to the radical changes needed to move the world onto a path aligned with the 1.5°C ambition of the Paris agreement (Bridges).
Security of energy supply has come to the forefront of the energy policy agenda, with rising energy prices and significant increases in overall cost of living, keeping energy affordability on the agenda as well. Still, the climate challenge will stay as a long-term driver for decarbonisation of our energy system, but the short to medium-term focus should be expected mainly on those options that combine decarbonisation with increased energy security and resilience.
How will the share of fossil fuels in primary energy demand towards 2050 develop? How fast will the world be able to electrify road transport? And, to what extent will natural gas play a role as a transition fuel? These are big questions with potentially large impact on the energy markets and the ability to deliver on climate targets; thus, the dialogue driven by Energy Perspectives is particularly valuable in informing decisions that will shape the future of energy.
The continued war initiated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the challenges with inflation and cost of living are putting a damper on absolutely necessary energy transition measures.
Energy Perspectives 2023
Balancing energy security, affordability and decarbonisation is key for a sustainable energy transition.
The two scenarios, Walls and Bridges, illustrate two very different pathways for the global energy system towards 2050. A separate deep dive on critical minerals and rear earth elements looks into the importance of growing the supply and refinement capacity to support the global energy transition.
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Here you can find our archive of previous editions of Energy Perspectives.
Energy Perspectives archiveEnergy transition plan
This is our action plan with short-term actions and medium-term ambitions necessary to realise our ambition of becoming net zero by 2050.
Published 2 May 2022