Global macroeconomic and energy market outlook
About this report: Energy Perspectives is an independent energy scenario analysis prepared annually by Equinor analysts in macroeconomics, energy markets and geopolitics.
Energy Perspectives 2025 presents four scenarios for the future world economy, international energy markets and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.
The scenarios are not predictions, but possible contrasting pathways, providing a platform for debate, strategic planning and decision-making.
Three of the four scenarios, Walls, Plazas and Silos, are forecast scenarios that contrast the slow pace of energy transition observed with the rapid changes needed to meet the 1.5°C ambition of the Paris Agreement.
Shifting global markets and geopolitics in 2025
Long-term outlooks of the development in global energy markets are normally very difficult. As this year's Energy Perspectives report is published, they are even more so, as global markets and geopolitics are undergoing massive shifts with unpredictable short- and long-term consequences. Political priorities affecting global energy markets are shifting further away from decarbonisation towards energy affordability and security of energy supply. On top of this, the short-term impact of trade conflicts and new rules of the game in geopolitics is almost impossible to gauge.
Key insights from Energy Perspectives 2025
Energy Perspectives presents four scenarios for economic and energy market development:
*The Bridges scenario as outlined in the 2023 outlook.
Some of our key findings:
- The balance of priorities within the energy transition will influence global energy demand, energy mix and ultimately emissions.
- Total primary energy demand is impacted by both economic growth and the evolving energy system.
- Peak demand for fossil fuels arrives towards the end of the 2020s in Walls and Silos, but comes later in Plazas.
- Efficiency improvements lead to net reductions in energy use by 2050 in some sectors.
- Liquids demand is weakened by EVs but grows in the petrochemical and non-road transport sectors.
- Global gas demand is highly sensitive to trade restrictions and energy interdependence.
- While gas and liquids are both traded globally, gas demand is more sensitive as it is impacted by electricity demand and can be more easily substituted with other energy sources.
- Electricity will meet a higher share of final energy use.
- The key enabler of the energy transition is growth in decarbonised electricity.
- Electric vehicles become increasingly affordable and available, but their uptake depends on climate policy, trade restrictions, and consumer spending.
Find more detail about these and other issues by downloading the full report, available below.
