The 16th edition ofEnergy Perspectives is set in a context of heightened geopolitical tension, economic fragmentation and increased uncertainty in energy markets.
Recent developments have reinforced the importance of energy security and affordability, influencing both near-term decisions and long-term trajectories.
“Energy Perspectives give us the long-term insights and analyses needed to make the right decisions, both here and now and for the future,” says Anders Opedal, president and CEO of Equinor.
The report finds that the global energy transition continues, but at an adjusted pace as governments prioritise short-term challenges and manage trade-offs between security, affordability and decarbonisation.
Current conditions and near-term developments make achieving a 1.5°C global warming ambition highly unlikely.
The analysis highlights that outcomes diverge significantly depending on how policy, economics, and geopolitics interact over time in shaping the global energy system, which provides a platform for debate and informed decision-making.
“Geopolitical shocks and the continued breakdown of the global rules-based order are impacting priorities in energy, economic and climate action policies,” says Christian Becker, senior vice president of global external analysis.
The report presents four forecast scenarios—Walls, Plazas, Silos and Arches.
Walls reflects a continuation of current trends, with moderate growth and a gradual, constrained energy transition. Plazas describes a more integrated, high-growth world where energy demand rises and emissions reductions are slower.
Silos outlines a fragmented world of weaker growth and limited cooperation, with more domestically focused energy systems. Arches explores a pathway driven by national and regional climate action, delivering faster emissions reductions but still falling short of the 1.5°C ambition.
